Probable Causation
Education & Explainer
About
A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.
Episodes
- Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit
In Episode 125 of Probable Causation, David Phillips discusses the effects of free public transit, referencing research on its impacts on economic and social disparities, job searching, and crime.
- Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books
Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden converse about their respective books concerning crime and punishment. Doleac’s book is titled The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice, and Harden’s is Original Sin: On the G…
- Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs
In this episode of Probable Causation, Steeve Marchand discusses the effects of prison programs on behavior. The conversation references multiple research papers exploring topics such as recidivism, incarceration length, employment outcome…
- Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services
Ezra Golberstein discusses the impacts of school-based mental health services on youth outcomes. The episode references research on child mental health, unintended consequences of antidepressant warnings, and the Perry Preschool Program.
- Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST)
On Probable Causation, Oeindrila Dube discusses a cognitive behavioral training program for police. The episode references several research papers related to policing, crime, and officer behavior, including work by Dube, Shah, and MacArthu…
- Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs
Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommen…
- Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records
Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records. “ Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing ” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ The Prevalence…
- Episode 120: Joseph Doyle on improving foster care outcomes
Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes. “ Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado ” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN TH…
- Bonus episode 15: Jens Ludwig on his book, Unforgiving Places
Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.
- Episode 119: Elin Colmsjö on how health shocks affect criminal behavior
Elin Colmsjö talks about how health shocks affect criminal behavior. “ Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime ” by Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Pa…
- Episode 118: Sekou Keita on media reporting policies, crime, and immigration
Sekou Keita talks about how media policies that limit information reported about criminal offenders can unintentionally increase bias against the group they're trying to protect. “ The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and N…
- Episode 117: Nour Abdul-Razzak on cognitive behavioral therapy for at-risk youth
Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change. “ Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago ” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Bran…
- Episode 116: Crystal Yang on accreditation of jail-based health care
Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “ The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails ” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN…
- Episode 115: Steve Mello on the long-term financial consequences of small fines
Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “ Fines and Financial Wellbeing ” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017…
- Episode 114: Rachel Nesbit on mandating mental health treatment for probationers
Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “ The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System ” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Cal…
- Episode 113: Peter Hull on a jail-based education program called IGNITE
Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “ 'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program ” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang…
- Episode 112: Abi Adams on economic abuse and intimate partner violence
Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “ The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships ” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Motherhood…
- Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform (REBROADCAST)
Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The…
- Episode 111: Roman Rivera on electronic monitoring during the pretrial period
Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “ Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes ” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE…
- Episode 110: Aurélie Ouss on misaligned incentives in the criminal justice system
Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “ Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States ” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Co…
- Episode 109: Anjali Adukia on restorative justice practices in schools
Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “ From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools ” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Mo…
- Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST)
Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ar…
- Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST)
Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019. "The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and…
- Episode 108: Emma Rackstraw on "Copaganda"
Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes. “ When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers ” by Emma Rackstraw. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Arrest Decisio…
- Episode 107: David Macdonald on truth-in-sentencing policies
David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies. “ Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism ” by David Macdonald. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate se…
- Episode 106: Ryan Sakoda on post-release supervision
Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision. “ Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision ” by Ryan Sakoda. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Intensive Probation and Parole " by Joan Petersili…
- Episode 105: Amanda Agan on how sealing criminal records affects employment
Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment. “ Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation ” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Cryst…
- Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police
Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. “ A Cognitive View of Policing ” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Thinking, fast and slow? Som…
- Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST)
Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehl…
- Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST)
Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurel…
- Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid access and recidivism
Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism. " In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid " by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN T…
- Episode 102: William Arbour on prison-based behavioral programs
William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism. " Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program " by William Arbour. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:…
- Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST)
Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler…
- Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST)
Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonath…
- Episode 101: Xinming Du on social media content and offline violence
Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence. “Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Experimental Evidence of Massiv…
- Episode 100: Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho on renter protection policies
Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis. “The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis”…
- Episode 99: Ben Feigenberg on class disparities in traffic stops
Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses. “Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISO…
- Episode 98: Evan Rose on community supervision
Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules “Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Ros…
- Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail (REBROADCAST)
David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Ev…
- Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries (REBROADCAST)
J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCU…
- Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt on the Great Migration and economic mobility (REBROADCAST)
Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt. OTHER RESEARCH WE…
- Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care (REBROADCAST)
Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. OTHER…
- Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST)
Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an In…
- Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST)
Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police"…
- Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST)
Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deduc…
- Episode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountability
Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability. “Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you…
- Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence
Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia. “Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger. *** Probable Caus…
- Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net
Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs. “Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiati…
- Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago
Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago. “Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If yo…
- Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force
Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force. “Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enj…