Risky Science Podcast
Science & Ideas
About
The Risky Science Podcast features conversations with scientists, insurers, investors, portfolio managers, and others about the evolving science of predicting and modeling risk across both natural and man-made perils.
Episodes
- The Wrong Model for the Wrong Job With Roy Wright
In this episode of Risky Science, Roy Wright explains the limitations of catastrophe models for pricing individual risk and the role of neighborhood-level mitigation. He also discusses how insurance markets are affected when price signals…
- The LA Fires and the Risk Market Value Chain With Joy Chen
Joy Chen, former deputy mayor of Los Angeles, discusses the LA fires and their impact on the insurance market. She highlights issues such as delayed claims, underpayments, and a significant gap between expected insurance payouts and rebuil…
- How Catastrophe Models Work and Where They Fall Short With Anil Vasagiri
Anil Vasagiri, Head of Risk Data Solutions at Swiss Re, discusses catastrophe models and their shortcomings. The episode was recorded live at Climate Tech Connect 2026 in Washington, D.C.
- Why Mixing Catastrophes With Prediction Markets Is More Dangerous Than It Looks With Jamie Pietruska
Jamie Pietruska, a historian at Rutgers University, explores the history of prediction markets and their application to catastrophic events. The discussion covers the evolution of weather gambling and analyses if current speculative financ…
- AI, Models, and the Limits of Climate Assumptions with Sarah Kapnick
This episode features Dr. Sarah Kapnick discussing issues in climate finance, including the limitations of credit models in assessing physical risk and the boundaries of AI in generating climate insights.
- Can Models Still Work When Everything Changes at Once? With Christiane Baumeister
Dr. Christiane Baumeister from the University of Notre Dame shares her research on global oil market dynamics, including supply, demand, price drivers, and the development of forecasting models for volatile markets.
- (Preview) China's Growing Risk Data Moat and the US Brain Drain With Hui Su
This episode features Dr. Hui Su, a professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. The discussion covers her research at the intersection of satellite data, artificial intelligence, and extreme weather forecasting, as wel…
- Confidence as a Service With Eric Winsberg
Eric Winsberg, a philosopher of science, joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss the transition of scientific models from theoretical settings to practical applications in policy and markets.
- (Preview) The $232 Billion Storm No One Is Pricing With Moody's Chris Lafakis
Chris Lafakis led an analysis integrating Moody's catastrophe modeling with macroeconomic models to evaluate storm costs. This episode previews the Risky Science Podcast Member Edition.
- How Hurricane Risk Really Gets Priced with Dr. Ben Collier
Dr. Ben Collier discusses his research on hurricane risk pricing in home insurance. His paper, using Florida data, found that a one-dollar increase in modeled expected loss correlates to approximately a five-dollar increase in homeowner pr…
- Black Box Problems, Machine Judgment and the Rules Nobody's Written Yet With Daniel Schwarcz
Daniel Schwarcz, a law professor, joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss the governance of AI in insurance. They cover the current applications of AI, the challenges posed by differing state regulations, and potential future directions…
- AI Risk, Markets and Modeling the Unknown With Daniel Reti
Daniel Reti, co-founder of Exona Labs, discusses AI risk modeling and quantification tools on the Risky Science Podcast.
- Prediction Markets, Parametrics and Rethinking Weather Risk With Dr. Partick Brown
Dr. Patrick Brown joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss prediction markets and forecast contracts as potential new tools for managing weather risk. The episode explores how these could complement or replace traditional hedging strateg…
- Greenland, Venezuela and the New Political Risk Model Reality with WTW’s Sam Wilkin
Samuel Wilkin of Willis Towers Watson joins Risky Science Podcast to discuss the increasing importance of political risk for businesses. He explains the challenges of modeling "gray zone" attacks and advocates for scenario discipline and e…
- Cyber Risk in 2026 and Why Near Misses Matter More Than Losses With Morgan Hervé-Mignucci
This episode discusses cyber risk in 2026, noting its systemic nature despite poor understanding of loss materialization. It features Dr. Morgan Hervé-Mignucci discussing the evolution and limitations of cyber risk modeling, and the signif…
- Climate, Markets and the Limits of Insurability with Dave Jones
Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner, explains that insurance is a key indicator of climate risk, using California and Florida as examples. The episode explores the accelerating impacts of climate change on insurance market…
- Climate, Catastrophe Models and the Limits of Prediction with Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.
This episode features Roger Pielke Jr., a researcher focused on risk and policy models. The discussion covers his views on climate change in catastrophe modeling for insurance and his critique of current climate-risk analytics.
- Housing Prices, Climate Signals and Reinsurance Shocks with Dr. Philip Mulder
Dr. Philip Mulder joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss his research on how reinsurance shocks, influenced by climate factors, are affecting housing prices and affordability in the U.S. economy.
- Weather, Risk & Europe’s Energy Upheaval with TP ICAP’s Tim Boyce
Tim Boyce, with 25 years in financial markets, discusses weather as a significant but underdeveloped market impacting multiple industries. The episode covers growing demand, advancements in forecasting and satellite data for hedging, and t…
- Pandemics, Models and the Limits of Securitization with Dr. Susan Erikson
This episode features Dr. Susan Erikson, who explores the intersection of risk, capital, and human health, specifically examining pandemic bonds and the financialization of global health. Her insights challenge conventional views on risk t…
- Opening China’s Weather Risk Markets with climateHedge’s Jim Huang
Jim Huang, founder of climateHedge, shares insights on the progress and future of weather derivatives, insurance, and reinsurance products in China's developing risk finance market, despite geopolitical challenges.
- Sweet Earnings, Sour Investors and the Insurance Cycle Reset with KBW’s Meyer Shields
Meyer Shields, an insurance analyst from KBW, discusses market trends, the influence of AI and modeling on financial results, and whether the current property catastrophe discipline represents a lasting change or a temporary hard market.
- Building Trust In AI-Driven Weather and Risk Models With Dr. Hansi Singh
Dr. Hansi Singh explains the successes and challenges of using AI in weather forecasting, particularly beyond the seven-day window. The discussion covers how AI can complement physics-based models and its applications in finance and insura…
- From Models to Markets and Future of Catastrophe Risk with Dr. Paul Wilson
Dr. Paul Wilson, Head of Catastrophe and Climate Research at Twelve Securis, joined the Risky Science Podcast for a live recording to discuss catastrophe risk and climate research.
- AI, Climate, Catastrophe and Why Markets Need To Rethink Risk with Dr. Seth Baum
Dr. Seth Baum of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute discusses the challenges of understanding and preparing for global threats, including climate change, AI, and pandemics. He explains how uncertainty complicates risk management and wh…
- Prediction markets and disrupting insurance with Kalshi's Shannon Magiera
Shannon Magiera from Kalshi joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss prediction markets and their potential impact on the insurance industry. The episode features a live discussion with Dr. Paul Wilson.
- Climate, Correlation, and Cat Bond Investing with Plenum Investments’ Dirk Schmelzer
Dirk Schmelzer, Partner at Plenum Investments, shares his 15+ years of experience managing catastrophe bond funds. The discussion covers the practical use of catastrophe models in portfolio management, their evolution, limitations, and the…
- Why Trust, Transparency, and Testing Define the Future of Cat Bonds And Models with KCC’s Karen Clark
Karen Clark, founder of Karen Clark & Company, joins Risky Science Podcast to discuss the evolution of catastrophe modeling, emphasizing the growing importance of trust, transparency, and testing in defining the future of cat bonds and mod…
- The Modeled Through Line from Hurricane Katrina to Cyber Catastrophe Risk with Fermat Capital’s John Seo
John Seo, founder of Fermat Capital, reflects on the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the catastrophe bond market and how the event continues to shape investor confidence and risk modeling two decades later.
- Pricing and Modeling Wildfire Risk in the Nation's Most Expensive Housing Market with Stanford's Michael Wara
Michael Wara explains his skepticism about California's public wildfire model and how private models will impact the insurance market. The discussion also covers integrating community-scale risk mitigation into these models.
- Severe Convective Storms are Reshaping Insurance and Modeling with Dr. Victor Gensini
Dr. Victor Gensini, an expert on severe convective storms, joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss how these events impact insurance and modeling. The episode covers the difficulties in modeling these storms compared to hurricanes, new…
- Cascading Risks And a Cascadia Mega Quake With Dr. Tina Dura
In this episode, Dr. Tina Dura, a coastal hazard researcher, explains the threat of sudden land subsidence caused by a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake, noting that it's often underestimated in risk models.
- Multi‑Hazard Events, Messy Data and Climate Insurance Models with Michiel Ingels
This episode discusses the state of climate risk insurance modeling and its future needs with Michiel W. Ingels, lead author of relevant research.
- Floods, Risk Models, and the Future of Insurance With ReThought's Cory Isaacson
Cory Isaacson, CEO of ReThought Insurance, joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss his work on developing new models for flood risk. The conversation focuses on making flood risk more accurate, transparent, and insurable.
- Modeling Pandemic Risk: Dr. Neil Ferguson on the Future of Epidemiology, Policy, and Private Markets
Dr. Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute at Imperial College London, joins Risky Science Podcast to discuss the development and application of disease modeling in policy and private markets.
- Multi-Hazard Modeling, AI, and the Future of Risk With Paolo Bocchini
Dr. Paolo Bocchini joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss the divergence between academic and private sector research in catastrophe risk. They explore multi-hazard risk, the capabilities and limitations of AI in modeling, and the futu…
- Wargaming, Combat Modeling, and Escalation Risk With CNA’s Dr. Jeremy Sepinsky
Dr. Jeremy Sepinsky, Lead Wargame Designer at CNA, explains how wargaming differs from combat modeling and captures human dynamics in escalation decisions. The discussion covers applying these models to current geopolitical tensions and un…
- Open Models, Collaboration, and Catastrophe Risk With Oasis’s Dickie Whitaker
Dickie Whitaker, CEO of Oasis, joins the Risky Science Podcast to discuss how open-source catastrophe modeling is changing the risk landscape. The episode covers Oasis's growth, its adoption by major companies, and future technological dev…
- Private Credit, Liquidity, Longevity and Life Insurance With S&P’s Carmi Margalit
Carmi Margalit of S&P explains the analytical framework for assessing risks associated with private credit in insurer portfolios, as companies seek higher yields in a high-rate environment.
- Modeling Risk in a Non-Stationary Climate with Dr. Daniel Swain
This episode features Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist, discussing weather and climate modeling. Topics include extreme weather events, climate change communication, and the 'weather whiplash' framework.