Is the Age of the Megachurch Over?
By Warren Cole Smith Megachurches are not going away, of course. But data in recent years suggest their growth and numbers are leveling out, and possibly even declining. In 1970, the United States had less than 20 protestant megachurches, churches with more than 2,000 in weekly attendance. Today, that number is close to 2,000, a 100-fold increase. However, this number has been mostly unchanged for the past 10 years. In other words, after a period of explosive growth from 1970 to about 2010, the growth in the number of megachurches, and the number of people who attend them, seems to have stagnated. Outreach Magazine publishes an annual list of the fastest growing churches in America, and the largest churches in America. I recently compared the most recent list to the list from 2006 — 20 years ago. My analysis was not comprehensive, but it was fascinating. For example, the largest church on the 2006 list was Lakewood Church in Houston, Texas, pastored by Joel Osteen. In 2006 and 2026, the attendance listed was 45,000. No growth whatsoever over a 20-year period. The No. 2 church on the 2006 list was Florida’s Without Walls International Church, led by Randy White, the former husband of Prosperity Gospel preacher and Trump advisor Paula White. Without Walls had 23,900 attendees in 2006. Today, that church is not on the list. It sold its facility in 2011 following the divorce of Randy and Paula White, not to mention other public scandals. Today, the church still exists, but attendance figures are hard to come by. Attendance is likely in the hundreds or — at most —low thousands. Not the tens of thousands of its heyday. The No. 3 church on the 2006 church is the Second Baptist Church of Houston, which listed attendance of 22,266 in 2006 and still has attendance of 19,564 today. That is a slight decline over the past two decades, but Second Baptist is still a substantial church and a force in the Houston area. Rounding out the Top Five on the 2006 list are New Birth Missionary Baptist Church (22,000) and Willow Creek Church (21,500). Both churches have been wracked by scandal and are now much smaller today than then. In short, not one of the Top Five churches of 2006 grew in the intervening decades, and three of the five had very public scandals that precipitated dramatic declines. I do not want to overstate my case. As William Bennett famously said, “The plural of anecdote is not data.” I am sharing anecdotes, not data — or at least, not all the data. I will be the first to admit that. And I can think of a couple of good counterarguments to my thesis that the Age of the Megachurch is over. First, while these churches have declined, others have emerged, and some of them are very large indeed. For example, Life.Church of Edmond, Okla., led by Craig Groeschel, now claims 85,000 attendees. That makes it the largest church in the nation. Church of the Highlands of Birmingham, Ala., is led by Chris Hodges. That church claims 60,000 attendees. And Christ’s Church of the Valley in Peoria, Ariz., is both the No. 3 church on this year’s list and it remains one of the fastest growing churches in the country, with 54,142 in weekly attendance. However, it is worth noting that all three of these churches are multi-site churches. Life.Church has more than 45 physical locations. Church of the Highlands has at least 27 locations. Christ’s Church of the Valley has more than 18 physical locations. The multisite phenomenon was rare in 2006 and nonexistent in 1970. It is obvious that if these multisite churches were not aggregating numbers from dozens of sites, their numbers would be much less eye-popping. The growth in multi-site churches, and the anemic growth in the number of megachurches also make obvious that American infatuation with megachurches seems to be in decline. Ryan Burge, my “go to guy” when it comes to church data, notes that the median size of a church in America is about 70 people. Put plainly, the nation’s megachurches attract about f