Dmitry Gorenberg on Russia in year five of the war
Here we find ourselves approaching the fifth spring of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.As the rest of the world’s geopolitical landscape changes dramatically, Russia’s “friend group” shrinks, and Ukraine’s friends grow weary and distracted, where is the war moving and where could we expect Russia to adjust for another year of conflict? Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg , a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs . He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University. Summary In this episode, we explore the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking its fifth spring, and analyze Russia’s current military strategy, technological dependencies, economic adjustments, and geopolitical efforts. Our expert guest, Dr. Dmitry Gorenberg, a senior research scientist at CNA, provides insights into Russia’s military tactics, technological challenges, and international alliances, painting a comprehensive picture of a pivotal moment in the conflict. Key Topics: The significance of the fifth spring of the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications The role and impact of Starlink and Russian anti-satellite capabilities Russian military tactics: steady grinding, troop mobilization, and drone warfare The Russian psyche regarding prolonged conflict and public sentiment The influence of repression and government control on information dissemination Economic resilience: sanctions, oil prices, and support from BRICS nations Russia’s strategic partnerships: Venezuela, Iran, China, and others The role of sabotaging NATO and Western countries to weaken collective defense Information warfare: Russian propaganda, disinformation, and influence operations Technological dependencies: reliance on US-based satellite systems and Chinese components Russian military leadership: promotions, strategic updates, and future outlooks The geopolitics of energy, with focus on shadow fleets and the Straits of Hormuz Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction and overview of Russia’s fifth spring in the Ukraine conflict 02:09 - The impact of cutting off Starlink and communication disruptions on the front lines 04:20 - Russian troop mobilization...