Investment Wars
Business & Finance
About
We all love stories - telling them and hearing them. We tend to construct narratives incorporating data points and information that reinforce our point - only capturing a part, and perhaps the wrong part, of the full story within the dynamic and complex investing world. How do we know if the narrative is right? How do we know how the story will end? Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at ocio@obsidiancio.com. — IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.
Episodes
- Episode 37: Prediction Markets: Forecasting, AI, and the Future of Information
Joe Halpern and Zvi Mowshowitz discuss prediction markets. They explore what prediction markets are, their utility as economic tools, and their future alongside AI.
- Episode 36: Private Credit: Navigating Bumps in the Road
This episode of Investment Wars features Joe Halpern and Robert Grunewald discussing private credit and direct lending. They cover how these deals work, the landscape of private credit vehicles, and various risks and opportunities in the m…
- 35. Liquidity, Valuation, and the Return of the Yield Curve
This episode of Investment Wars features David Sherman discussing the complexities of fixed income and equity markets, including the impact of zero interest rates, inflation, and liquidity. The conversation covers investor behavior, market…
- 34. Direct Lending and the Evolution of Private Credit
This episode of Investment Wars features Alona Gornick discussing direct lending and the evolution of private credit. The conversation covers the history of private credit, the impact of regulation and bank consolidation, and why instituti…
- 33. Interest Rates and Economic Distortions
Paul Musson is featured on Investment Wars to discuss interest rates and economic distortions. The conversation covers inflation, money supply, government intervention, and their consequences on markets and investors.
- 32. Trade Imbalance – Is Reindustrialization the Key to U.S. Economic Resilience?
Eli Horton joins Investment Wars to debate the US trade imbalance and the role of reindustrialization. The discussion covers supply chains, national security, public and private capital expenditures, and reshoring strategies in reshaping t…
- 31. Energy Infrastructure – Will It Double in the Next Decade?
This episode of Investment Wars features Rob Thummel discussing the future of energy infrastructure, including rising demand, grid capacity, and investment opportunities.
- 30. How to Measure and Navigate Market Uncertainty
Professor Nick Bloom discusses how to measure market uncertainty and its impact on economic and financial markets. The episode explores strategies for navigating uncertain environments and references the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.
- 29. How Do I Select the “Right” ETF?
Adam Patti, CEO of Vistashares, joins Investment Wars to discuss how to select the right ETF. The episode covers ETF market history, the benefits of ETFs for tailored exposure, and key factors to consider when analyzing ETFs.
- 28. LA Fires - The Complexities of Insurance
This episode of Investment Wars discusses the complexities of insurance in the context of LA wildfires, featuring Jerry Theodorou from the R Street Institute. It covers the insurance industry's historical response to catastrophes, the curr…
- 27. Innovation Episode - The Future of AI
Tejas Dessai discusses the future of AI, its economic implications, and America's role in the global AI race. The conversation references Global X’s Charting Disruptions Outlook for 2025 and Beyond.
- 26. Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2025?
JoAnne Bianco, CFA of BondBloxx joins Investment Wars to debate the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. The discussion covers economic indicators, global factors influencing inflation and jobs, and the potential impact of Fed…
- 25. Are We Entering a New Golden Age of US Manufacturing?
This episode debates whether the US is entering a new golden age of manufacturing, examining increased costs and geopolitical risks in global hubs compared to the US. It covers topics like US competitiveness, global logistics risks, and go…
- 24. Should We Invest in China?
Brendan Ahern, CIO at KraneShares, debates investing in China, the world's second-largest economy. The episode reviews China's history, demographics, urbanization, and the real estate sector's current stresses.
- 23. Why Are Interest Rates Now Declining?
Investment Wars episode 23 discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, exploring factors like maximum employment and inflation targets, and the potential economic impacts.
- 22. What Will Jobs Look Like in 2040?
This episode debates the future of jobs in 2040, with Stephanie Aliaga from JP Morgan Asset Management. Topics include the impact of demographics, immigration, AI, and robotics on the job market and economic productivity.
- 21. NEW JERSEY! Is NJ a Bellwether for What Lies Ahead for the US in a Complex and Changing World?
This episode of Investment Wars discusses how New Jersey's geography, dense population, and historical development influence its planning and economy. Professor John Hasse explains how the state serves as both a microcosm and a leading ind…
- 20. The Upcoming Election: Will the Winner Materially Affect Market Performance in the Near Term?
Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, joins Investment Wars to discuss how the upcoming election's winner might affect near-term market performance. The episode examines political party alignments and divergences, exploring…
- 19. How Demographics May Affect Future Interest Rate and Debt Levels
This episode of Investment Wars discusses how aging demographics might influence future interest rates and debt levels, featuring James Meyers. It examines the potential economic effects of an older population, including impacts on product…
- 18. Will the Crypto Ecosystem Disrupt Both Fiat Currency and Digital Technologies?
David LaValle of Grayscale discusses the potential disruption of fiat currencies and digital technologies by the crypto ecosystem. The episode explores cryptocurrencies, smart contracts, and their coexistence with traditional systems like…
- 17. Will the Fed Really Cut Rates Three Times This Year?
This episode of Investment Wars features Michael Shaoul debating the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates three times this year. The discussion covers the risks of lowering rates too quickly, the current state of the economy, and market war…
- 16. Do Recent Disruptions in the Real Estate Sector Create Opportunity in 2024?
In episode 16 of Investment Wars, Lauren Hochfelder of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing analyzes recent disruptions in the real estate sector. The discussion covers the impact of Covid, inflation, and borrowing costs, exploring potenti…
- 15. Will Robots Take over the World?!
Zeno Mercer, an expert from VettaFi RoboGlobal Indexes, discusses the increasing capabilities and integration of robots in various sectors, exploring whether they could eventually "take over the world." The episode covers the evolution of…
- 14. How Strong Is the Trend Towards Reshoring of Manufacturing?
Investment Wars episode 14 examines the trend towards reshoring manufacturing, questioning if it's driven by supply chain issues or geopolitical considerations. Chris Semenuk, Investment Partner with Tema ETFs, is featured.
- 13. An Insider View of Disruption within the Auto Industry
This episode features Dr. Philip Koehn, an automotive industry veteran, discussing disruption in the auto sector. Topics include electric vs. combustion engines, the impact of technology, China's EV competition, and the future of autonomou…
- 12. Is Commercial Real Estate a Risk or Opportunity?
This episode features Burl East discussing the current state of commercial real estate. Topics include the impact of hybrid work and interest rates on office space, and opportunities in sectors like cell towers, industrial, and RV parks.
- 11. Will the US Have a Deep Recession?
Victoria Vogel, CFA, analyzes economic indicators like interest rate hikes, savings rates, and delinquencies to debate the likelihood and potential depth of a US recession.
- 10. Will the US Have a Shallow Recession?
This episode of Investment Wars features a debate on whether the US will experience a shallow recession. Host Joe Halpern discusses the economy, jobs, housing, and geopolitical concerns with guest Jack Janasiewicz.
- 9. China in Transition: Will the Chinese Consumer and Capital Spend Driven Innovation Propel China Forward?
This episode of Investment Wars debates China's economic transition, considering factors like consumer spending, innovation, urbanization, and challenges such as debt and demographics. It highlights China's significant investment in future…
- 8. China, Innovation and Yield Curve Teaser
This episode of Investment Wars will cover the impact of China's future on global markets, innovation, and the inverted yield curve. The podcast is sponsored by Obsidian CIO for educational purposes and does not offer investment advice.
- 7. How Do Higher Rates Affect the Economy and Market?
This episode of Investment Wars examines the impact of rising interest rates on the economy and markets, featuring Bob Grunewald. It covers inflation, consumer and corporate debt in various environments, and CLO investing.
- 6. The Resilience of the 60/40 Portfolio
This episode of Investment Wars features Chris Tidmore discussing the 60/40 portfolio, its recent performance challenges in 2022, and alternative investing strategies.
- 5. Will We Have a Hard Landing?
Matthew Miskin of John Hancock Investment Management joins Investment Wars to debate whether recent rapid Federal Reserve rate hikes will lead to a hard economic landing. The discussion covers the effects of increased borrowing costs on co…
- 4. US Debt Levels Are Too High
This Investment Wars episode debates whether US debt levels are excessive. Featuring Matt Orton, the discussion compares US debt to that of corporations, individuals, and Japan, while also considering long-term economic impacts and potenti…
- 3. Future of Jobs
Jeremie Capron and Matthew Bartolini discuss the future of jobs and wage inflation. Capron notes historical transitions created more wealth and jobs, while Bartolini highlights remote work flexibility and minimum wage impacts as factors fo…
- 2. Demographics - Aging of US / Developed Markets Will Cause Deflation
This episode features a debate between Brian LoDestro and Douglas Gimple on whether an aging US population will lead to deflation. LoDestro argued that reduced spending and a contracting labor force would be deflationary, while Gimple coun…
- 1. Debate on Inflation
In the first episode of Investment Wars, Meera Pandit and Lara Rhame debate the claim that inflation will revert to the Fed goal of 2% within the next 1-3 years. The podcast is sponsored by Obsidian CIO and does not provide investment advi…