Economy Watch
Business & Finance
About
We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
Episodes
- The Persian Gulf mess festers
This episode of Economy Watch discusses the ongoing situation in the Persian Gulf, New Zealand's upcoming economic data releases, and significant export and import growth in China. It also touches on economic updates from Australia, the US…
- US credit card debt leaps
US households are struggling with inflation, leading to increased credit card debt in March. While jobless claims remain relatively stable, job cuts, particularly those related to AI, are increasing. Inflation expectations are rising, impa…
- Without any cards, Trump does u-turn
Economy Watch reports on a significant drop in oil prices due to a US policy shift, with crude oil down over 10%. The episode also covers falling US mortgage applications, mixed employment data, and economic trends in Canada and China, inc…
- Markets act as though Hormuz is settled
Despite US claims of a ceasefire holding with Iran and ships lining up, activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal, with only an Iranian tanker transiting recently. Meanwhile, global economic data shows mixed signals, including a sma…
- Hot conflict reignited in Persian Gulf
The latest Economy Watch episode covers the economic consequences of the renewed Persian Gulf conflict, noting impacts on oil prices, stock markets, and interest rates. It also examines US economic indicators like factory orders and vehicl…
- Intense pressure but financial markets still holding
This episode of Economy Watch covers ongoing economic pressures, particularly fuel and fertilizer prices, stemming from the Strait of Hormuz conflict. It previews key financial and employment reports for New Zealand and Australia, and disc…
- Compounding exposure
Economy Watch discusses global economic trends, highlighting strong profits in US tech firms attributed to AI, US economic growth figures, and rising inflation. The episode also touches upon US jobless claims and economic data from Japan a…
- Airlines become the canary of the global economy
This Economy Watch episode with David Chaston examines global economic trends, including the US Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, rising oil prices impacting financial markets, and mixed economic data from the US such as durab…
- Fallout from oil price rises spreads
Economy Watch discusses global economic trends, including oil price impacts, dairy auction results, Australian bond market shifts, US employment data, and inflation expectations in Japan, Korea, India, and Europe.
- Oil prices are rising
Economy Watch covers rising oil prices due to stalled peace talks and comments from the German Chancellor regarding US-Iran relations. The episode also details US economic indicators, Canada's new sovereign wealth fund, China's improved cr…
- The ruptures deepen
Economy Watch discusses international economic events, noting concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait. It also covers US jobless claims and manufacturing PMIs, Canadian PPI, and economic activity in India, Taiwan, and Japan.
- Yes, the Hormuz mess is worse today
This Economy Watch episode covers Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz, US economic indicators like mortgage applications and oil inventories, and a sharp fall in EU consumer sentiment. It also touches on a US Treasury bond auction and p…
- Hormuz ceasefire set to expire
The episode discusses the expiring Hormuz ceasefire and its implications for global oil markets, noting a shift away from fossil fuels. It also covers New Zealand's dairy auction results, US economic indicators like employment and retail s…
- US-Iran positions yo-yo
This international edition of Economy Watch covers escalating US-Iran tensions impacting oil exports, Canadian CPI returning to 2.4% with improved business and consumer sentiment, China holding LPR steady and seeing export surges in green…
- Pressure re-applied as Hormuz chaos returns
Economy Watch covers the renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz impacting global markets, and previews New Zealand's upcoming March quarter CPI data, alongside international economic news from Australia, the US, China, Japan, and Canada.
- Oil supply picture gets more complicated
This episode of Economy Watch discusses the complex oil supply situation, influenced by US-Iran talks and falling US crude inventories. It also covers US jobless claims and industrial production, China's housing market and GDP, and Austral…
- Trump flails aimlessly in Mid East & with Powell
The episode covers global economic trends, focusing on the Middle East conflict
- US policy just gets weirder
The IMF has downgraded global economic forecasts, citing drifting conditions and a potential third recession since 2000. Dairy prices have fallen, and while the US labor market shows job growth, small business optimism is low due to rising…
- Brace for sharp oil pressure
Economy Watch discusses the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on oil and trade prices. It also covers a dip in US home sales, a significant fall in Canadian building consents, and rising inflation in India, alongside price…
- Global outlook darkens
This international edition of Economy Watch covers the darkening global economic outlook, including US threats against Iran and their potential impact on inflation and trade. It also previews upcoming economic data releases from New Zealan…
- War threats compounded by cyber security threats
This episode of Economy Watch covers global economic updates, including stagnant US consumer spending, downward revisions to US economic growth, and rising jobless claims. It also discusses political shifts in Canada, falling consumer conf…
- Assessing the war scars
This international edition of Economy Watch covers global economic events including the US-Iran ceasefire, rising oil prices, and the Federal Reserve
- US leadership insanity deepens
Economy Watch discusses global economic events affecting New Zealand, noting market uncertainty due to US leadership actions and threats towards Iran. It covers the recent dairy auction, which showed price stabilization despite global supp…
- US service sector cools, inflation heats up
Economy Watch reports on global economic trends. In March, the US service sector saw slower activity and job losses, but faster price inflation. Canada’s service sector contracted, while Singapore’s growth slowed with high inflation. India…
- Contrasting national addresses
This episode of Economy Watch, hosted by David Chaston, contrasts national economic addresses and covers global trends. It discusses anticipated US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and mortgage applications, alongside factory PMI…
- Searching for an off-ramp
Wednesday's Economy Watch covers international economic trends. Dairy prices dipped at the latest auction. In the US, consumer sentiment rose marginally despite surging inflation expectations, while job openings and hiring decreased. Manuf…
- Q1-2025 ends in a mess
David Chaston
- War consequences bite harder
The episode discusses the economic impact of war, noting falling US sentiment, trade disputes between China and the US, rising Chinese profits, and various government measures to address fuel affordability and a growing diesel crisis.
- Risk aversion rises on more policy corrosion
This episode of Economy Watch discusses rising risk aversion due to policy corrosion, with a focus on global economic indicators. It covers OECD growth forecasts, inflation revisions, US economic data, and impacts from international events…
- Trump adventure leaves a global mess
David Chaston of Economy Watch details the global economic consequences of US foreign policy, noting lingering inflation, higher interest rates, and impacts on oil prices. The episode also touches on US mortgage rates, crude oil stocks, an…
- Escalations show off-ramp options fade
This episode of Economy Watch discusses rising Middle East tensions and their economic implications. It also covers concerns about US private credit markets, citing issues with opaque funds managed by major financial institutions. Economic…
- Trump backs down on strikes against Iran's power system
Economy Watch covers the latest developments in global economics, including the US stance on Iran, economic data trends, and shifts in European political sentiment.
- Investors face stagflation, reassess returns
Economy Watch discusses the impact of the US war on Iran on global markets, fiscal management, and elections, noting potential market volatility. It highlights upcoming economic data releases from various countries and analyzes the potenti…
- Energy shock to be protracted
The global energy market faces a protracted shock following an attack on Qatar, impacting natural gas trade. The episode also reviews US economic indicators including jobless claims, factory activity, and home sales, alongside central bank…
- Fed steady in face of local and global provocations
The US Federal Reserve decided to hold its policy rate steady at 3.25% with an 11-1 vote. Despite global economic turmoil and a surge in US producer prices, markets showed a muted reaction. The episode also touches on declining mortgage ap…
- Middle East attrition going nowhere
Economy Watch discusses the calm financial markets due to a stalemate in the Persian Gulf, dairy auction results with mixed commodity prices, and a weaker-than-expected US ADP jobs report. It also touches on business activity decline in Ne…
- Markets discount war risks
Economy Watch discusses how markets are discounting war risks, noting Iran
- A week of global central bank updates
Economy Watch discusses global economic trends, featuring oil price impacts from the Persian Gulf conflict and upcoming central bank decisions worldwide. It also previews key economic data releases for New Zealand, Australia, the US, Euroz…
- David Cay Johnston: NZ's objective with Trump should be 'to not become the focus of his wrath'
David Cay Johnston, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist, warns that the US could become an autocratic nation under Donald Trump, comparing it to China, Saudi Arabia, or Russia. He suggests that New Zealand should prioritize not becoming th…
- Oil up, equities down, quagmire deeper
Economy Watch covers the economic impact of rising oil prices and falling equities, with updates on the Middle East oil market, US economic data including jobless claims and housing starts, Canadian trade figures, and inflation in India an…
- Markets ignore official data and actions
Markets appear to be disregarding current economic data and official actions, leading to increased risk. This includes oil prices rising despite reserve releases, benchmark interest rates increasing while inflation remains unchanged, and t…
- Markets bet heavily on the TACO effect
This Economy Watch episode covers global economic trends impacting New Zealand, with markets anticipating a resolution to US-Iran tensions and betting on the 'TACO effect.' It also reviews stable dairy prices, mixed US economic indicators…
- Can politicians cover the Iran crisis cracks?
This episode of Economy Watch discusses global economic events and their potential impact on New Zealand. It covers market uncertainty regarding the Iran crisis, US inflation and petrol prices, economic data from Taiwan and China, and Japa…
- The consequences of a series of bad choices bedevils the US, and the rest of us
Economy Watch covers international economic trends, including Middle East developments, US inflation data, and the impact of shrinking US workforces on the global economy.
- Trump's distraction war causes chaos
This Economy Watch episode covers the global repercussions of US war decisions and analyzes US economic data, including the Federal Reserve Beige Book, jobless claims, and hiring trends. It also touches on energy prices in the US, Europe,…
- Insurers dismiss Trump's promises
US mortgage applications increased due to refinancing, while employment gains were concentrated in specific sectors with minimal pay benefits. Services PMI data in the US presented conflicting figures between official and private surveys.…
- War inflation fears spread
Global inflation fears are impacting financial markets, with rising commodity prices and falling equities. Central banks are increasing interest rates amid concerns of stagflation, while geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions add to…
- The cost of war will hit inflation soon
The Economy Watch podcast discusses the rising cost of war and its impact on inflation, particularly due to increased shipping costs. It also covers global manufacturing PMI data from the US, EU, Japan, Taiwan, and other Asian nations, not…
- Safe haven demand to set the tone this week
This episode of Economy Watch covers global economic news impacting New Zealand, focusing on market reactions to geopolitical events and upcoming data releases. It highlights key economic indicators from the US, Australia, China, and other…
- Mark Laurence: 'Flabbergasted that AI hasn't become a political talking point'
Mark Laurence expresses surprise that AI has not become a major political topic in New Zealand