Carnegie Politika Podcast
News & Politics
About
The Carnegie Politika Podcast delivers world-class analysis on what’s happening in Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Every month, Russia expert Alexander Gabuev talks to Carnegie scholars and regional analysts on the ground to respond to emerging regional trends, the future of Russian geopolitics, and how the region is shaping the world.
Episodes
- After Putin’s Visit to China, What Next?
Putin’s Russia has always been China’s pragmatic junior partner while trying to balance its dependency on Beijing, but since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the relationship has become ever more tilted in China’s favor. What are t…
- Is NATO Misreading Putin’s Risk Appetite?
As the conflict between the West and Putin’s Russia escalates without guardrails, would the Kremlin dare to launch a military incursion into NATO territory in coming years? With the mercurial Donald Trump at the helm of NATO’s most consequ…
- Will There Be a New Pro-Russia Force in Europe After Orban?
Viktor Orban was one of the most prominent Russia supporters in Europe, blocking aid to Ukraine and trying to soften EU sanctions against Russia. Now that he is gone, will there be a drastic change in Hungary's foreign policy and relations…
- What’s the Future of U.S.-Russia Arms Control?
On February 5, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the New START, expired. Absent this or a similar agreement, the world is a more dangerous place—particularly given the nuclear buildup in C…
- How Is Central Asia Weathering the Iran War?
Central Asia’s countries have been the focus of increased attention since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They have been involved in parallel imports, feeding the Kremlin’s war economy, but have also hosted thousa…
- How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko
At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also con…
- How the South Caucasus Is Navigating a Turbulent World
Following the initiation of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan last summer, there is still a long way to go before the conclusion of a formal agreement and sustainable peace in the region. In the wake of a visit by U.S. Vice…
- What to Expect From the Russian Economy in 2026
The Russian economy has been under intense pressure from sanctions, the demands of war, and structural challenges. Still, it isn’t collapsing, despite predictions and wishful thinking on the part of the West. How healthy is the Russian eco…
- Transatlantic Tensions, the Russia Threat, and Davos, With Gideon Rachman
This year’s World Economic Forum took place amid turbulent transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has renewed his plans for “getting” Greenland, threatening to annex part of a NATO ally. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine rages on, while the pea…
- Maduro’s Downfall, Global Oil Markets, and Russia, With Sergey Vakulenko
Under Putin, Russia has established a relationship with Venezuela, and was heavily involved in the country until recent years. The Chavez and then Maduro regimes bought Russian weapons with sizeable loans from the Kremlin, Moscow ordered i…
- Navigating the U.S.-Russia Standoff: India’s Foreign Policy, With Pankaj Saran
India and Russia have a mutually beneficial relationship going back decades, and since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, India’s strategic importance for Russia has grown considerably. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Trump administrati…
- What Went Wrong in Russia? Russian Imperialism, With Ekaterina Schulmann and Alexander Graf Lambsdorff
Russia went from a tsarist empire and the totalitarian USSR to the freedom of the 1990s, complete with hopes of becoming a European democracy. Unfortunately, multiple missteps and reckless foreign policy endeavors have resulted in Russia b…
- How Russian Diplomacy Lost Trump, With Elizaveta Fokht
Russia has had a year to convince Trump to give up on Ukraine and force Zelensky to surrender, but at the end of 2025, we are yet to see any significant results from the Kremlin’s efforts. After a triumphant beginning that had Europe and U…
- The Collapse of the Oil Empire? New U.S. Sanctions Against Russia, With Edward Fishman
After recent failures to bring the Kremlin to the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine, Trump has adopted a new approach to Putin, taking the significant step of sanctioning Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, wh…
- How to Handle Russia’s Frozen Assets in the EU, With Robert Zoellick
Russian assets abroad were frozen almost as soon as the country launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The idea of seizing those assets and transferring them to Ukraine has been discussed in Western capitals for more than three years, b…
- What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska
Over the last month, there have been multiple violations of NATO airspace by Russian fighter jets and drones most likely launched by Russia. The alliance must now come up with an adequate response to this “probing” by the Kremlin and devel…
- Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko
The Russian oil and gas sector has been under significant pressure this year, but has continued to withstand sanctions. Recently, however, Ukraine has launched a series of massive drone attacks against Russian oil refineries, significantly…
- Better Than Ever? Russia-China Relations, with Sergey Radchenko
At this week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping seemed determined to show the whole world that Russia-China relations are better than they have ever been. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has…
- What’s Going On Inside Belarus with Artyom Shraibman
Since the regime brutally crushed opposition protests in 2020, Belarus has rarely made the headlines. Some see the country as a loyal satellite of Russia, stripped of all agency, others overlook it entirely. Despite the lack of attention,…
- Back to the Stalin Era? An Inside Look at the Russian Elites, with Farida Rustamova and Margarita Liutova
Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, life for Russia’s rich and powerful has passed the point of no return. The recent suicide of Roman Starovoit is the first case in post-Soviet Russia of a cabinet minister taki…
- What Was That? The NATO Summit 2025, with Nathaniel Reynolds
This year’s NATO summit was very unusual on multiple levels. Amid the disruption brought by Donald Trump’s presidency, and with Ukraine’s European allies adamant that continuing U.S. leadership is needed to help the embattled country at th…
- A Friend in Need? Decoding Russia’s Position on the Israel-Iran War, with Nicole Grajewski and Arkady Mil-Man
The war between Israel and Iran, Russia’s key partner in the Middle East, is entering its second week, with potential for escalation and worrisome spillover effects. Yet Moscow is not rushing to support Tehran in any meaningful way. Presid…
- How Stable Is the Russian War Economy? With Alexandra Prokopenko
At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western leaders put a lot of faith in applying economic pressure to Russia, and it is now probably the most sanctioned country in the world.But despite the unprecedented sanctions tsunami, the Russia…
- Calculating Russia’s Losses in Ukraine, With Mika Golubovsky and David Frenkel
Soon after the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia stopped publishing official data on its military losses. Despite that, analysts from independent media still manage to extract data from multiple sources, such as regional obituaries, paym…
- Special Episode: Victory Day in Russia, with Arkady Ostrovsky
Russia’s Victory Day public holiday, celebrated on May 9, has undergone a major transformation in Putin’s Russia. Historically, it was a day of somber commemoration, and its main leitmotif was “Never again.” Under Putin, the holiday has be…
- Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman
While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future traject…
- Trump’s Tariffs and Their Effect on Russia with Tatiana Mikhailova
When U.S. President Donald Trump announced his long list of reciprocal tariffs, many instantly noticed that one country had escaped any restrictions: Russia. Does that mean Russia is now a safe haven amid the ongoing economic storm? And wh…
- A Deep Dive Inside Ukraine with Balazs Jarabik
Throughout the war, many people have been skeptical about how long Ukrainian society could hold up before inevitably collapsing under Russian pressure. After three full years of war, there are no signs of discord or the looming collapse of…
- Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China? With David Rennie and Yanmei Xie
What is the reason for the sudden change of heart in U.S. policy on Russia under the Trump administration? One theory is that Donald Trump is trying to lure Russia out of China’s sphere of influence and drive a wedge between Moscow and Bei…
- Relationship Goals? Unpacking the Latest U.S.-Russia Talks, With Eric Green and Felicia Schwartz
With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the Unit…
- Ukraine’s Last Defender? Germany, the EU, and Russia's War, with Sophia Besch
In 2022, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared “Zeitenwende”—a “turning point” in how Germany should think about its defense and security. As the third anniversary of the war approaches amid si…
- Triangle of Sadness: Prospects of Trump-Putin-EU Peace Talks on Ukraine, with Eric Ciaramella
Since Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president, ways to stop the carnage in Ukraine this year have been the subject of intense policy discussions in capitals around the world. Despite Trump’s rhetoric about ending the war swiftly and…
- No Silver Bullet: The Effect of Russian Energy Sanctions, With Sergey Vakulenko and Tatiana Mitrova
For a long time, oil and gas sales were the Russian economy’s main source of income. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU and U.S. have unleashed unprecedented sanctions upon the Russian energy sector. The effectiv…
- Assad’s Downfall and the Consequences for Russia in the Middle East
Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damasc…
- Chaos Is a Ladder. Russia’s New Ballistic Threat and Its Consequences for the West.
After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed in…
- How Will Trump’s Presidency Influence Russia’s War Against Ukraine?
For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftly—presumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But doe…
- The Dissipation of Russian Influence in Moldova
Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration…
- Unbalancing Act. What the 2025 Budget Says About the Russian Economy
Despite predictions that the Russian military budget had reached its peak, the recently announced 2025/26 budget shows otherwise. To keep the war machine oiled and functioning, the Russian government is once again raising military spending…
- How Are Russia and Ukraine Adapting to the Kursk Incursion?
In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small paramilitary groups, the incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be more strategic and serious.…
- NATO at 75: Ukraine, Russia, and the Future of European Security
Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against…
- Arc of Instability: How to Survive as an “In-Between” European State
The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries—Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia—find themselves in what we have termed an “…
- What's Happening Between Russia and North Korea?
Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signa…
- What Impact Will Russia's New Defense Minister Have in Ukraine?
Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new government. The most significant change is to the Defense Ministry, which will now be led by Andrei Belousov, a Keynesian economist and form…
- Is Putin Prioritizing Regime Survival Over Fighting Terrorism?
Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), and most of the suspects are migrants from Tajikistan. Yet Russian authorities rema…
- Is Western Apathy Trapping Belarus in Russia's Embrace?
Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale…
- Post-Election Russia Resembles the Soviet Union
Russia’s presidential election this month shattered all previous records, with president Putin "securing" an unprecedented 87.3 percent of the vote. The critical question now is: how will Putin’s re-election be perceived, both domestically…
- Podcast: Navalny's Legacy for the Russian Opposition
The sudden death of the jailed Russian opposition leader was a shock, though it was not unexpected. For the last decade, Navalny had been the most vocal critic and opponent of Putin's regime, while his Anti-Corruption Foundation had suppor…
- What’s the Secret of the Russian Economy’s Resilience?
The Western sanctions imposed against Russia in response to its full-blown invasion of Ukraine were not just designed to put a cost on Moscow’s actions, but also to stem the flow of materials and money enabling it to wage war. Why did this…
- Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War
Since Russia launched its "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian society has adapted to living amid conflict. Despite initial predictions that public outrage would topple the regime, the majority of Russians have consolidate…
- What Does Russia Stand to Gain From the Israel-Hamas War?
It's been more than a month since Hamas attacked Israel, reigniting the Middle East crisis once again and switching the focus of other political players to the region. Is Russia benefiting from the escalation in the conflict? How is it aff…